While the economy was stable, the development of new industries became more resilient

In the face of the stormy international environment and the complex and changing external situation in 2022, the machinery industry earnestly implements the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and The State Council, adheres to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implements the requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safe development, and maintains stable industry operation, continuous optimization of industrial structure, and continuous enhancement of development resilience. The main economic indicators throughout the year were within a reasonable range, playing a positive role in stabilizing the economic market, boosting the industrial economy, and improving the quality of foreign trade. Looking forward to 2023, the domestic market of the machinery industry will gradually improve and the development environment will be optimized, but the challenges of the external demand market will intensify. The whole industry should have firm confidence, 踔厉 and work hard to promote the stable operation of the industry economy and constantly improve the quality of development.

First, the economic operation of machinery industry in 2022

Although the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2022 has experienced ups and downs, the operation trend is generally good. The first quarter started well; In the second quarter, affected by the local epidemic and the traffic and logistics difficulties caused by it, the downward pressure increased abruptly, and the whole industry quickly took heart, and the main indicators changed from negative to positive in a short time; Stable and positive in the third quarter; In the fourth quarter, due to the repeated epidemic and the decline in external demand market, the growth rate slowed down. The main economic indicators of the machinery industry achieved steady growth throughout the year.

one

Characteristics of economic operation of the industry

1, the industrial scale continues to expand

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2022, there were 111,000 enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry, an increase of 12,000 over the previous year, accounting for 24.7% of the number of enterprises above designated size in the country, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the previous year; Assets totaled 32.5 trillion yuan, up 13.1% year on year, accounting for 20.8% of the country's total industrial assets, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous year.

2. The growth rate of added value is higher than that of the national industry

In 2022, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 4% year-on-year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the national industrial added value, and 1 percentage point higher than the growth rate of the manufacturing added value. The added value of 4 of the 5 national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry increased, of which the added value of special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, instrument and meter manufacturing industry increased by 3.6%, 6.3%, 11.9%, 4.6%, and the added value of general equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 1.2%.

3, product production and marketing situation differentiation

Of the 30 kinds of products mainly monitored by the machinery industry, there are 13 kinds of products with year-on-year growth in cumulative output throughout the year, accounting for 43.3%; There were 17 kinds of products with decreased output, accounting for 56.7%. During the year, the production and marketing situation of the main products was differentiated, and the number of products that achieved growth fluctuated around half.

The main features of product production and sales are as follows: First, to effectively cope with the impact, automobile production and sales achieved growth, the annual production and sales of 27.021 million and 26.864 million, respectively, up 3.4% and 2.1%, ranking first in the world for 14 consecutive years; Second, the construction of the energy sector accelerated, driving the rapid growth of power generation equipment, transmission and transformation equipment and energy storage related products, the output of generator sets increased by 17.3%, the output of solar cells increased by 47.8%; Third, the growth rate of equipment production serving the raw material industry slowed down from the previous year, and the output of metal smelting equipment and cement special equipment increased by 0.7% and 6.7% respectively. Fourth, the output of processing and manufacturing equipment decreased, and the output of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools decreased by 13.1% and 15.7% respectively. Fifth, the production of products with rapid growth in the early stage fell back, and the output of metal containers, special packaging equipment and excavators fell 36.9%, 17% and 21.7% respectively.

4, the benefit index growth is stable

Technological progress and upgrading of product structure effectively drive the growth of industry benefits. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2022, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 28.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6%; The total profit reached 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1 percent year-on-year. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of the total operating income and profit of the machinery industry is 3.7 and 16.1 percentage points higher than that of the national industry, respectively. The proportion of total industrial operating income and profit in the country is 21% and 21.6% respectively; Driving the national industrial operating income growth of 1.9 percentage points, driving the total profit growth of 2.2 percentage points.

5. Unbalanced operation in different industries

In the 14 sub-industries of the machinery industry, the total operating income and profit of 8 sub-industries increased year-on-year, and 6 sub-industries declined. Among them, the electrical and electrical appliances industry, driven by the energy storage equipment and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industry, the total operating income and profit increased by 26.4% and 37.6% respectively; The machine tool industry, driven by the abrasive products manufacturing industry, increased its total operating income and profit by 15.2% and 62.9%, respectively, which is the two sub-industries with the fastest growth rate of economic indicators. Construction machinery industry and internal combustion engine industry operating income fell by more than 12%, profit fell by more than 35%, is the most significant decline in the benefit index of the two sub-industries.

6. Investment in fixed assets is improving

Under the combined effect of improved investment willingness and low base factors, fixed asset investment in the machinery industry will show rapid growth in 2022. Mainly involved in the national economy industry categories of general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, instrument and meter manufacturing fixed asset investment increased by 14.8%, 12.1%, 12.6%, 42.6%, 37.8%. Among them, private investment in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth throughout the year, which was an important force driving the growth rate of investment in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry of more than 40%; The fixed asset investment in the automobile manufacturing industry will turn from negative growth in 2020 and 2021 to positive growth in 2022.

7, the industry operation in the boom range

The establishment of machinery industry prosperity index covers production, investment, foreign trade, economic benefits and other dimensions, and comprehensively reflects the operation of machinery industry. In 2022, the machinery industry climate index opened high in February, under the comprehensive impact of the epidemic impact in May was the low point of the year, and then gradually recovered, although the end of the two months fell back, but the overall year remained in the boom range, and the machinery industry climate index was 105.98 in December.

two

Major problems in operation

1. Continued upward pressure on costs

Although the price of raw materials required by the machinery industry in 2022 has certain fluctuations, it is generally at a high level. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the producer price of raw materials for the whole year rose by 10.3% year-on-year. In addition, the prices of key raw materials in the manufacture of some products have risen sharply. For example, the prices of magnetic materials used in the low-voltage electrical industry and oriented silicon steel sheets for transformers have risen sharply; The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for the energy storage industry rose from 280,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2021 to 520,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022, and the price once surged to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton in November. In addition, labor costs continued the upward trend, and the total wage of employees in key enterprises increased by 6.6% year-on-year. The annual operating costs of the machinery industry totaled 24.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%, higher than the growth of operating income in the same period; The cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 84.6 yuan, an increase of 0.4 yuan over the previous year.

2. The difficulty of payment recovery increases

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2022, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached 6.9 trillion yuan, exceeding 6 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of the total industrial accounts receivable in the country, which is more than 10 percentage points higher than the proportion of indicators such as the operating income and total profit of the machinery industry in the national industry; The average collection period of accounts receivable is 1.5 times that of the national industry. In addition, the special survey shows that in 2022, 53% of the total bill receivable of enterprises rose, of which 16% of enterprises rose by double digits, and the capital turnover pressure of enterprises is greater. At the end of the year, the turnover rate of current assets in the machinery industry was only 1.36 times, lower than the national industrial average of 0.35 times.

3, the domestic market demand is generally weak

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the national investment in equipment and instruments, which is closely related to the market demand for machinery products, increased by 3.5% in 2022, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of national fixed asset investment in the same period, and the investment in equipment procurement in the whole society is weak. Machinery industry is mainly involved in the national economy industry categories, general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 79.2%, 77.6%, 72.7%, 77.3%, down 1.8 to 3.7 percentage points from the previous year. Key enterprise data show that the cumulative order value of machinery enterprises throughout the year continued to be in negative growth, the decline in the second half of the year has narrowed, and the end of the year is still down 2%. According to the special survey, by the end of 2022, 50% of the surveyed enterprises' orders in hand increased year-on-year, and 70% of the surveyed enterprises' orders in hand only met the production in the first quarter of 2023; The problem of weak growth of orders in foreign trade market and short production time is more obvious, and most of the short orders in hand are single.

2. Highlights in the development of the industry

Effectively responding to risks and challenges, the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry have been further promoted, the development of emerging industries has accelerated, new driving forces have accelerated, scientific and technological innovation achievements have emerged, and the resilience of industry development has been further enhanced.

(1) Strengthening chains is carried out in an orderly manner, and high-end intelligent development is accelerated

We effectively responded to the impact of unexpected factors, and the industrial chain and supply chain became more resilient. The manufacturing capacity of high-end industrial mother-machines, precision instruments, and key core components has been improved, and the supply capacity of large-scale electric power equipment, large-scale mining and metallurgical equipment, and large-scale petrochemical equipment has been upgraded, providing a guarantee for the development and utilization of national energy resources and the construction of ecological civilization. The high-end and intelligent development of the machinery industry has accelerated. The domestic equipment car powertrain processing production line developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong Zhibang Technology jointly with Pashiningjiang Machine Tool and Huazhong Numerical Control has been put into use in Shanghai General Motors, marking that the high-end processing center composed of domestic functional parts has been able to fully meet the processing needs of high-end automotive powertrain. Harbin Electric Group has successfully manufactured the first real rotor of additive manufacturing axial flow turbine in China, which is of great significance to promote the application of intelligent manufacturing technology in the field of power generation equipment manufacturing. The first set of "one-key coking" intelligent complete sets of equipment designed and developed by Heavy Group was put into operation, filling the technical gap in the domestic coking industry.

2. We deepened innovation-driven efforts and made breakthroughs in major equipment manufacturing

The construction of the machinery industry innovation system has been accelerated, and by the end of 2022, a total of 253 key laboratories, engineering research centers and innovation centers for the machinery industry have been listed and approved for construction. Among them, 121 key laboratories and 96 are in operation; 131 engineering research centers, 109 listed operation; One innovation center was launched. Enterprises actively invest in research and development and innovation, and the highlights of independent innovation in major equipment are frequent. Dongfang Electric Group independent research and development of the first domestic F-class 50 MW heavy gas turbine, Huadian Qingyuan Overseas Chinese Industrial Park gas distributed energy station ignition success, marking China in the field of heavy gas turbine from scratch to achieve a breakthrough. The 16 MW offshore wind turbine with the world's largest single capacity, largest impeller diameter and lightest unit MW weight, jointly developed by China Three Gorges Group and Xinjiang Goldwind Technology, has been rolled off the assembly line, marking an important breakthrough in the high-end equipment manufacturing capacity of China's offshore wind power large-capacity units. Yitao Group has successfully developed with all independent intellectual property rights, feeding more than 15 kilograms of intelligent high-end harvesting machinery - Dongfanghong YT6668 large efficient grain combine harvester, breaking the monopoly of foreign products in the field, with high quality agricultural machinery equipment escort food security.

3. Pursuing green development and promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries

Under the guidance of the "double carbon" goal, the machinery industry has fully promoted the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. In 2022, the total operating income and profit of the machinery industry energy equipment manufacturing industry increased by 20.4% and 33.9%, respectively, driving the machinery industry operating income growth of 3.9 percentage points and the total profit growth of 5.1 percentage points. The output of wind turbines accounted for more than 50% of the total output of power generation equipment in the year. The continuous emergence of green and low-carbon equipment has strongly promoted the carbon reduction development of traditional industries. The electrification development of construction machinery has accelerated, the product system has become increasingly perfect, and the sales volume of electric loaders has exceeded 1,000 units throughout the year, which will promote the green development of engineering construction. The successful test of TBEA's new generation of million-volt transformers plays an important role in improving the consumption of clean energy in China and ensuring the stable operation of the power grid. China's first set of underwater tree developed by CNOOC successfully completed the test operation of underwater gas well blowout in Yinggehai, South China Sea, and was officially put into use, marking that China has possessed the capability of design, construction and application of complete sets of deepwater underwater tree equipment, which provides important equipment support for improving domestic energy self-sufficiency. For the underground smart garage project in Jing 'an District of Shanghai, China Railway Construction not only built the world's largest shaft boring machine "Dream" independently developed by China, but also innovating and proposing a full-system solution to build underground three-dimensional smart parking garage in urban piecemeal land using prefabricated vertical boring technology, which has positive significance for optimizing the utilization of urban underground space and promoting the construction of smart cities.

(4) Emerging industries lead the industry to improve quality and efficiency

In 2022, the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry is significantly higher than that of the production indicators, of which the leading role of emerging industries should not be underestimated. In the whole year, the relevant industries of strategic emerging industries in the machinery industry achieved a total operating income of 23.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 13% year-on-year, driving the operating income of the machinery industry to increase by 10.1 percentage points; The total profit reached 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.5%, and the total profit of the machinery industry increased by 11.7 percentage points. In particular, the energy storage and photovoltaic equipment industries together contributed 62.9% and 55.1% to the total growth in operating income and profit of the machinery industry. New energy vehicles, as a representative of emerging industries, achieved sales of 7.058 million and 6.887 million in 2022, respectively, up 96.9% and 93.4% year-on-year, and the production and sales reached a record high, maintaining the world's first for eight consecutive years. At the same time, new technologies such as new generation information technology, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and 5G are accelerating the integration with the machinery field, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the industry. Weichai Group has established an industrial cloud service platform composed of three parts: supplier collaborative research and development platform, engine intelligent cloud platform and big data analysis and decision platform, providing data support for the construction of intelligent manufacturing system. Lanshi Group adopted industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, image processing, real-time data acquisition and analysis and other technical means to build the first domestic nuclear energy equipment welding digital platform successfully launched, forming an intelligent production system with welding process traceability, welding quality stability and reliability, and welding quality evaluation accuracy greatly improved.

5. The volume and quality of foreign trade increased

The total import and export volume of machinery industry in 2022 was 1.07 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3% year-on-year, exceeding the trillion US dollars mark for the second consecutive year. Among them, the total export volume reached 740 billion US dollars and the trade surplus reached 410.4 billion US dollars, both reaching record highs. From the perspective of trade structure, the annual general trade export volume of the machinery industry increased by 12.5%, 3.1 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of exports, accounting for 71.4% of the total exports, which is the main force driving the total export volume of the machinery industry to a new high. From the perspective of product structure, the driving role of automobiles, construction machinery, power generation equipment, mining equipment and other complete machines and hosts on exports continues to strengthen.

 The export volume of excavators, electric forklifts, metal rolling mills, cranes and other products increased by 41.9%, 33.7%, 51.8% and 20.1% respectively.

Third, 2023 machinery industry trend forecast

At present, the internal and external environment facing the operation of the machinery industry is still complex and severe, but the development of the machinery industry is strong in toughness, vitality and potential, and it is expected to continue a steady and good trend throughout the year to achieve quantitative growth and qualitative improvement.

01 Industry operating environment analysis

In 2023, the risk of world economic recession rises, inflation expectations continue, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts threatens the recovery of global trade, developed economies have increased demands for industrial chain security, and the game between major powers in key areas has intensified, and the foreign trade market of the machinery industry is facing downward pressure. The domestic economy is still facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the machinery industry is running smoothly and the task of transformation and development is heavy.

The Central Economic Work Conference has made clear the general tone of "adhering to the word stability and seeking progress in stability", positive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy, macro-policy regulation and control, and all kinds of policy coordination and cooperation, providing solid support for the stable development of the machinery industry from the macro level. The stock policy and the incremental policy are superimposed, and the construction of key investments and major engineering projects has been started successively, forming a physical workload, and providing a strong guarantee for the steady growth of the machinery industry from the market level. Since the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the domestic economy has further shown a momentum of accelerating recovery. After returning to work during the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed production and grabbed orders positively, reflecting a significant increase in market confidence.

02

Forecast the trend of major sub-industries

In 2023, it is expected that the operation of the main sub-industries of the machinery industry will show a stable and good trend. Under the role of the automobile industry in stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption policies, market demand is expected to continue to rebound, the development of new energy vehicles and automobile exports will continue a good momentum, and it is expected that the annual automobile production and sales will increase slightly. There are many favorable factors in the electrical and electrical industries. Clean energy power generation projects such as wind power, photovoltaic power and nuclear power have been accelerated, and the structure of the coal power market has been adjusted. Increase investment in the construction of intelligent, digital and high-end new transmission and distribution system; Large-scale energy storage projects. It is expected that the main economic indicators of the industry will achieve a certain speed of growth. The petrochemical general equipment manufacturing industry is based on the investment demand of the oil and gas industry brought about by the high price of oil and gas, and the current order situation of enterprises is better, in addition, the "double carbon" goal also drives the demand for stock equipment transformation. The main economic indicators of the industry are expected to maintain stable growth. Construction machinery industry in the steady investment continues to increase, infrastructure construction speed up, special bonds to accelerate, policy banks to increase the increase in new loans and other favorable factors driven by the industry is expected to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable growth.

03

Industry-wide trend prediction

Comprehensive analysis, 2023 machinery industry economic operation will show a steady and good trend, the main economic indicators before low and high, is expected to annual industrial added value, operating income, total profits and other indicators growth at about 5%, foreign trade imports and exports are basically stable.

2023 is the full implementation of the Party's 20 major spirit of the beginning of the year, the machinery industry will adhere to the stability of the work tone, complete, accurate, and fully implement the new development concept, firm confidence and determination to develop, take the initiative to adapt to change, work hard, with the new weather as a new to maintain the smooth operation of the industry, promote the industry's high-quality development, It will provide strong support for a good start in building a modern socialist country in all respects.

Information source: China Machinery Federation